Can Bitcoin's Price Be Manipulated by Insiders and Global Events?

The recent fluctuations in Bitcoin's price have sparked intense debate among traders and analysts, with some pointing to insider trading and global events as the primary drivers of the cryptocurrency's volatility. However, others argue that Bitcoin is not easily manipulated, and its price movements are largely driven by broader market trends.

One of the recent events that has been linked to Bitcoin's price movement is the US strike on Iran. According to a report by CoinDesk, six insider accounts on Polymarket made over $1.2 million by correctly betting on the US strike. The strikes caused Bitcoin's price to fall, and oil futures on Hyperliquid to rise. This has raised concerns about potential insider trading violations, and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned about such practices in the past.

However, analysts reject claims that Bitcoin's price is easily manipulated. They argue that the cryptocurrency's price movements are largely driven by broader market trends, rather than by individual players or events. For instance, the recent "10 a.m. dump" phenomenon, where Bitcoin's price dips at 10 a.m. daily, has been attributed to broader risk repricing rather than any specific trading practices.

The US Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Donald Trump's emergency tariffs under IEEPA has also been linked to Bitcoin's price movement. The court's decision created uncertainty around the refund timeline for over $175 billion in tariff collections, leading to a decline in Bitcoin's price. This has highlighted the cryptocurrency's sensitivity to macro policy and global events.

In other news, American Bitcoin, a mining company backed by the Trump family, has posted a $59.5 million quarterly loss despite a rise in revenue and an increase in its Bitcoin stack. This has raised concerns about the company's financial health and its ability to compete with peers in the industry.

The recent volatility in Bitcoin's price has also led to a decline in its value as a long-term hedge. According to a report by CoinDesk, when macro policy turns unstable, Bitcoin stops trading like a long-term hedge and starts trading like a balance-sheet tool. This has significant implications for investors who view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

In conclusion, while insider trading and global events may contribute to Bitcoin's price volatility, analysts argue that the cryptocurrency is not easily manipulated. Its price movements are largely driven by broader market trends, and investors should be cautious of attributing its fluctuations to specific events or players.

Sources:

• "Why Bitcoin traders have to price tariffs like surprise rate hikes while waiting on social media posts for the next $175B trigger" by CoinDesk
• "Suspected insiders make over $1.2 million on Polymarket ahead of U.S. strike on Iran" by CoinDesk
• "Here's what happened in crypto today" by Cointelegraph
• "Analysts reject Jane Street '10 a.m. dump' claims, say Bitcoin isn't easily manipulated" by Cointelegraph
• "Trump family-backed miner American Bitcoin posts $59M quarterly loss" by Cointelegraph